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AIMS外汇 | 黄金价格预测：反弹在美国非农就业数据之前达到阻力
“好消息就是坏消息”，反之亦然，因为它与7月份的美国非农就业报告有关。
根据IG客户情绪指数，黄金价格在短期内存在看涨偏见。
第一个障碍出现
在过去一周的大幅反弹之后，金价已经达到了第一个障碍，包括基本面和技术面。在基本面方面，通常鸽派的美联储官员的一些评论推高了美国国债收益率，进而推高了美元（通过DXY指数）。不过，即将发布的7月美国非农就业报告可能是金价短期内的成败时刻。
强劲的美国就业报告推高了美联储加息几率，从而推高了美国国债收益率，引发了美国实际收益率的反弹，这将是金价的负面发展。另一方面，美国就业报告疲软可能会拖累美联储加息几率和美国国债收益率，使美国实际收益率回落并提振金价。从某种意义上说，金价的“好消息就是坏消息”，“坏消息就是好消息”。
黄金波动性稳定在6月低点附近
从历史上看，黄金价格与其他资产类别不同，与波动性有关。虽然债券和股票等其他资产类别不喜欢波动性增加 - 表明现金流，股息，息票支付等的不确定性更大 - 但黄金往往在波动性较高期间受益。现在，在7月美联储会议之后，新的基本面制度正在形成，因此仍然很难过多地解读黄金波动性的变化
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